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Our projects are designed to empower policy makers to create positive change. With a focus on collaboration and outreach, we provide original, standards-based research on key policy issues.
SCEPA joined with the Economic Policy Institute on Capitol Hill to brief congressional staff and policy experts on tax expenditures, or incentives given through the tax code without scrutiny by Congress.
SCEPA economists are working on the prospects for a more progressive economic order to emerge from the shock of the recession. They have published papers and documents that place current events in a longer-term context as well as policy proposals to deal with short-term concerns. They are also documenting the emerging discussion of how the discipline of economics is reacting to the Great Recession and the questioning of conventional economic analysis.
Lance Taylor, a SCEPA Faculty Fellow, presents an overview of his new book, Maynard’s Revenge, in a Google Tech Talk.
The book, published this November by Harvard University Press, is a timely analysis of mainstream macroeconomics, posing the need for a more useful and realistic economic analysis that can provide a better understanding of the ongoing global financial and economic crisis.
The government spends $143 billion through tax breaks in an effort to expand pension coverage and security. Yet, over half of the American workforce does not have a pension. Retirement insecurity hurts business plans, workers’ lives and retiree well-being. Reform is needed.
SCEPA’s Guaranteeing Retirement Income Project, sponsored by the Rockefeller Foundation and in collaboration with Demos and the Economic Policy Institute, has a plan to guarantee safe and secure retirement income for all Americans.
by Rick McGahey, SCEPA Faculty Fellow
Employment for the first month of 2015 continued the steady growth from last year. 257,000 new jobs were added, and although the unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth of a percent to 5.7, that resulted from people entering the labor force to look for jobs—what economists call "labor force participation." Participation in December was at an historic low, so there's a long way to go to restore healthy levels there.
Average hourly wages in January rose to $24.75, up half a percent from December (December's average wage rate actually declined). But wages are only 2.2% higher than one year ago. Weekly hours worked, however, were flat, at an average of 34.6 hours per week, the same as December, and virtually unchanged from last January's level of 34.4.
So jobs are being added at a steady pace—260,000 per month in 2014, the highest average monthly level since 1999. But the wage and hour data are not signaling any huge economic rebound or inflationary pressures. Make no mistake, this is still a lukewarm economy and labor market, and we are now 67 months into the recovery, above the 58-month average for recoveries since 1945.
The weak wage and hour data are part of a longer running economic trend—declines in the "labor share" of GDP. The share of gross domestic income going to employee compensation peaked in 1970 at 58.4%, and has been on a steady decline since then. In recent years, that share rose to 55.3% in 2008, just before the Great Recession, falling to 52.1% in 2013. A weaker labor share means weaker overall consumption and consumer demand, and the economy will not grow strongly.
There are various theories about why the labor share has declined. Some blame technological substitution, especially the spread of information technology into all sectors of the economy. Other scholars emphasize the loss of good-paying jobs to trade and corporate outsourcing (NSSR Dean Will Milberg's recent book with Deborah Winkler makes a strong case for this). Labor share also is reduced by declining union power, and economic "financialization," as businesses retain profits, hoarding cash, buying back stock and paying dividends instead of making new productive investments.
But all these factors pull in the same direction - a continuing shift in power towards business and away from labor. These longer-term forces are undercutting workers' bargaining power, so the steady job growth we are now seeing is not translating into higher wages. We need greater government investment to compensate for weak overall demand, and the Federal Reserve should not raise interest rates, as annual wage growth is very modest and well within their already conservative inflation targets.
The January 2015 employment report issued today by the U.S. Department of Labor reports that 1.41 million workers over age 55 were ready to work and actively seeking a job - but could not find one.
Unfortunately, this represents an increase in unemployment for older workers - the opposite of declining rates of unemployment in the overall labor market. January's unemployment rate for older workers is 4.1%, up from 3.9% in December. This increase represents an additional 60,000 older, unemployed workers.
Increased competition among older workers in the job market fuels the decline in older workers' bargaining power and a subsequent decrease in retirement benefits available in the workplace, such as employer-sponsored retirement plans.
Today's employment report is a warning for policy makers calling for a rise in Social Security's retirement age. Rising unemployment rates for workers over 55 shows the labor market is unlikely to be able to absorb an increase in older workers who cannot afford to retire when they choose.
This week's Worldly Philosopher, Ozlem Omer, discusses the flaws in the latest IMF policy recommendations for Turkey.
The December 2014 IMF Report is no exception. In it, the IMF warns Turkey that its persistent and large external debts make the country vulnerable to foreigners' willingness to lend - even though the Turkish economy has been growing 6% per year since 2010. The report criticizes Turkey's high inflation and foreign exchange rates, low interest rates, low levels of domestic savings, high external deficit, and, of course, increasing levels of private external debt. It predicts Turkey will likely face a dangerous reversal of capital flow. If foreign pension funds, rich foreign investors, and other countries stop lending money in Turkey, the nation could experience economic and social shocks exceeding the fallout from the 2009 recession.
The IMF suggests Turkey "curb its current account deficit and reduce the external deficit by boosting savings without decreasing investment—and lowering inflation to preserve competitiveness." In short, it calls for Turkish austerity.