by Rick McGahey, SCEPA Faculty Fellow

This morning's release of the January unemployment report has good political news for the Obama Administration, but not good enough news for the nation's economic recovery. The unemployment rate fell from 8.6 percent in December to 8.3 percent; it has now dropped almost a full point from the 9.1 percent for August 2011. Payroll employment increased by 243,000 jobs, after last month's increase of 203,000.

Initial responses are very favorable. The Dow Jones average jumped by 140 points in the first half-hour of trading. The Associated Press says there was a "hiring burst" in January , while even Fox Business News calls it a "strong jobs report," creating a "jobs jolt" to the economy.

But the gains in the report, while another welcome signal that the economy is not heading into a second recession, do not mean the economy is out of trouble. The job creation numbers are good, but not great by historical standards, and not enough to recover the losses from the Great Recession any time soon.

The net employment gain of 243,000 for January is one of the highest monthly numbers in all of President Obama's term (gains in March 2011 were around 290,000, and May 2011 had a sharp gain, but almost all from temporary Census workers being hired). In contrast, under President Clinton, average monthly job growth was close to 240,000—that's the average gain for every month in his eight year term.

And what about recovering from the Great Recession? Heidi Scherholtz at the Economic Policy Institute estimates the economy suffers a total "jobs deficit" of over 10 million, taking into account both the losses from the recession, and the job growth needed just to keep up with growth in the population and labor force. Her computation shows that we need 320,000 jobs per month, each and every month, to get to full employment by 2016. That's four years of average monthly growth over 30 percent higher than the figures reported today.

So today's reported progress is good, but it is not nearly enough. And the effects of the too-small stimulus program are running out this year, while state and local government employment and spending declines continue to drag down jobs and economic growth. More stimulus and job creation are necessary, but not possible as Republicans want more economic contraction, in part to damage Obama's chances of re-election. Obama has to hope that the real progress shown in today's numbers keeps up, and that voters will be satisfied that the trend is in the right direction, even though the economy is still not recovering fast enough.