Smith, Malthus and Recent Evidence in Global Population Dynamics

Xiao JiangLuis Villanueva
Written By SCEPA

WORKING PAPER

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This paper finds that the world production still exhibits strong pattern of increasing returns to scale, and most countries' population have been stabilizing along a convex path in the income-fertility schedule.

Our projection suggests that the world population will stabilize at per capita income around $ 13,550 in 2005 PPP, and by the year of 2011, the world per capita output was still about $2,824 short. The world population will stabilize around 10 billion assuming the absence of any exogenous shocks to the empirically established global income-fertility relation.

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