Research

Filter By:
Sort By:

Paper | Over the last few years, economists have focused on the long-run effects of persistent shocks on economic output. In this paper, we use a small-scale macroeconomic model to show how the macroeconomy adjusts to a deep contraction and how credit dynamics, along with the monetary policy design, may influence the extent of these scars through numerical simulations. 

Policy Note | The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), a popular federal program that has been replicated in many states and lifts millions out of poverty, has historically excluded most older workers from receiving benefits at the same rate as their younger counterparts. A New York state expansion of its EITC program would benefit tens of thousands of older low-income New Yorkers, thereby supporting them at a vital time in their work lives and benefiting the state economy. 

Policy Note | Social Security is the most essential and well-functioning part of the U.S. retirement system. Any reforms to federal retirement policy—while necessary and long overdue—must be built on the foundation of a protected and strengthened Social Security system. More than 60 percent of adults 65 and older receive most of their income from Social Security and all recipients benefit from the annuitized income the system provides. Despite calls to cut benefits and misleading claims about its finances, Social Security should be bolstered and expanded.

Policy Note | Up to 40 percent of middle-income workers are at risk of downward mobility into poverty or near-poverty in retirement because of an inefficient retirement system that disproportionately benefits those with high incomes. Universal retirement accounts and providing workers with more equitable and better targeted tax incentives are among the best methods to supplement Social Security and prevent downward mobility in retirement.

Paper | Recent controversies over the impact of an energy embargo on Russia triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine have focused on reducing dependence on fossil fuels and reorganizing energy supplies. This German- language paper presents a model-based econometric framework to estimate both the short-term effects of fossil energy shortages and long-term effects of different climate policy measures on individual sectors of the economy.

Paper | This paper models economic output jointly with health outcomes as they pertain to the COVID pandemic, finding that a continuously varying control (i.e. the lockdown intensity) fares better than sporadically taken discrete-time decisions with lockdown intensity staying constant over some time intervals.