WORKING PAPER | This paper investigates the role of the state of confidence for the macroeconomic dynamics of two interacting economies using the opinion dynamics approach.

WORKING PAPER | This working paper, published in the Journal of International Money and Finance, is an expansion on the policy note, 'The Role of Financial Stress in Debt and Recovery.'

POLICY NOTE | This research contradicts the highly cited Rienhart and Rogoff study, which states that debt higher than 90% of GDP will negatively affect a country's economic growth.

WORKING PAPER | This paper sets up a baseline, advanced and complete model representing goods market dynamics, heterogeneous labor markets, wage-price adjustment processes, and counter-cyclical government policies.

WORKING PAPER | This paper proposes a compositie indicator for real-time recession forecasting based on alternative dynamic probit models.

WORKING PAPER | This paper investigates the design of optimal monetary policy in a currency union with asymmetric national labor markets.

WORKING PAPER | In this paper the author models the existence of labour market frictions into a Keynesian AS-AD framework through a labour search and matching function.

WORKING PAPER | This paper studies the implications of the present broad banking system for macroeconomic stability.

WORKING PAPER | The paper posits the existence of a minimum mark-up loan interest rate threshold, which is identified using a long-term bank demand curve for excess reserves.

WORKING PAPER | In this paper the interaction between FX markets driven by trading based on behavioral forecasting rules and the macroeconomy of a small open economy is investigated.

WORKING PAPER | A simple model illustrates interactions between the "primary" fiscal deficit (total deficit minus interest payments), economic growth, and debt.

POLICY NOTE | This note offers policy recommendations based on empirical support that shows current account imbalances in the EMU are unsustainable and may jeopardize stability in the Euro Area.

WORKING PAPER | Evidence suggests that the introduction of the EMU is associated with a shift from sustainability to unsustainability of external debt accumulation among the Euro countries considered.

POLICY NOTE | Economic policy debate in the United States and other developed economies has been dominated by talk of lowering fiscal deficits through spending reductions.